Each
day I look at the report of earthquakes on the Big Island issued by the United
States Geological Observatory. It can be found at : http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/seismic/volcweb/earthquakes/.
After 20 years of looking at that website it has become very noticeable that
there are a lot more earthquakes on Mauna Loa than there used to be. Most of
them are concentrated on the southwest rift zone and an the south flank of the
volcano. Many of these earthquakes are deep-seated, usually indicative of
molten magma pushing into cracks in the volcanic edifice. Magma when it reaches
the surfaces loses gases and becomes lava. In addition to the earthquakes, measurements
of the deformation of the volcano indicate that magma is indeed pushing into
cracks and deforming the volcano. This information is available at: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/activity/maunaloastatus.php
and http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maunaloa/current/currentmonitoring.php.
Does
this mean that Mauna Loa is about to spring into action? After all, it hasn't
erupted since 1984 and is overdue for an eruption. It has erupted 33 times in
the last 170 years. At this time the earthquakes are smaller than those
observed prior to the eruptions in 1975 and 1984. So while activity is occurring
within the mass of the volcano, an eruption is not imminent. If, however, the
magnitude and frequency of the earthquakes increase then we may experience an
eruption. The question is not whether Mauna Loa will erupt, but when and where.
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