A weather computer model

We have, in Kona, successfully survived Hurricane Iselle. Many parts of the island, especially in the Puna district in the southeast were devastated by the storm. In Kona we had a negligible impact. While many areas got up to 15 inches of rain, at our house we received 0.1 inch. The difference was our position with respect to Mauna Loa. When our friends asked what we were doing to prepare, I said nothing because we were not going to be adversely affected.

I was able to say that because I had access to a computer model generated by the weather center on Haleakala. Let me explain my reliance on the computer model. When the last storm passed to our south, we needed to go to Hilo. The National Weather Service was predicting a rainy day in Hilo. However, I looked at the rainfall model found at: http://weather.mhpcc.hawaii.edu/wrf/hawaii2/rainfall.html which was predicting no rain.  It turned out to be a beautiful day in Hilo.

So when Iselle was bearing down on the island, I naturally turned to the computer model. In regards to both the rainfall predictions and wind speeds the model predicted that the rest of the island would be severely impacted, but, that the Kona area would not feel the effects of the storm. Naturally, we should never rely completely on a computer model, but, the predictions gave me reason to believe that Kona would be spared.

As it turned out the computer model was right. While the rest of the island received heavy rain and high winds, Kona was spared. The predictions from the National Weather Service necessarily must give a worst case scenario for the island, while the computer model could present a localized picture of what was expected. It definitely pays to explore all possible information sources that are available to the public. It might take a little searching, but it is well worth the effort.